[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ANY
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION. ANY ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N27W 3N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
5N13W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE E US INTO THE W
ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS PUSH ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 24N91W INTO MEXICO N
OF VERACRUZ NEAR 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
NEAR 29N83W TO 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 94W TO OVER MEXICO.
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER N
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N85W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N W
OF 85W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 14N E OF
72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER CUBA ALONG THE E COAST OF
THE US. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 40W-65W WITH A SERIES OF
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 25N42W TO
19N49W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE TROPICS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. A COLD FRONT IS TO THE W
ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W TO 25N55W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES N OF 28N. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICS TO BEYOND 32N ALONG 35W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225
NM OF LINE FROM 13N48W ALONG 23N41W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
28N69W AND A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE


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