[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS
VERY WEAK AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. ANY ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N26W 4N40W 2N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE E US AND ACROSS THE NW
GULF N OF 26N W OF 85W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE GULF FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA ALONG 28N94W TO
JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IS IN THE NW GULF EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO
26N96W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER THE NE US PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N87W TO OVER FLORIDA TO S GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE FAR E
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE N GULF TODAY AND EXITING ON SAT.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AS THE FRONT USHERS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS E CUBA COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SW OF A LINE FROM 20N84W TO 15N80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A LINGERING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N64W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N FROM 45W-70W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 23N47W OVER
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N FROM
42W-52W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR
10N45W N TO BEYOND 32N32W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
COUPLED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 7N46W ALONG
23N42W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO
THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO W OF 75W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N73W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF
40W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N29W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE TROPICS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR 6N11W TO
7N44W.

$$
WALLACE



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