[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ANY
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 18N DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. ANY ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N26W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF A LINE FROM 4N28W 5N38W TO 9N50W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT STILL
INLAND OVER E TEXAS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MOVING E NEAR 30 KT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
OVER E CUBA TO ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
27N FROM 84W-89W. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE GULF TONIGHT CROSSING THE GULF AND EXITING ON SAT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS E CUBA COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
SW OF A LINE FROM 19N87W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W ALONG
THE S COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN IS UNDER BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 45W-75W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 23N48W
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE
FRONT N OF 23N FROM 46W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE TROPICS NEAR 17N38W N TO BEYOND 32N34W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND COUPLED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE
FROM 11N44W 23N43W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N74W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N31W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
TROPICS EXTENDING FROM AFRICA NEAR 8N13W TO 12N51W.

$$
WALLACE


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