[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. ANY
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N26W 9N40W 8N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 20W-40W AND IS PRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N19W 4N8W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN NEAR 4N.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE S BAJA PENINSULA IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION COVERING MOST OF MEXICO THE THE W COAST OF THE
GULF INCLUDING SE TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA TO OVER LOUISIANA. VERY BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 26N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA BY A 1024 MB HIGH.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS
THE ENTIRE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF ON THU BRINGING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT TRANSVERSES THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING A MEAN RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERING THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 81W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 19N76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 63W-76W
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 63W ACROSS
N FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST
N OF THE REGION. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO
120 KT EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO BEYOND
32N58W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
W OF 65W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 45W WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
31N45W ALONG 23N48W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W GENERATING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 41W AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 63W AND E CUBA NEAR 75W INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N31W. WESTERLY NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE TROPICS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ SECTION
ABOVE.

$$
WALLACE





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