[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  WAVE
IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 85W-88W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N30W 6N44W 5N52W.  CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 13W-34W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W FROM
3N-10N GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N85W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W...HOWEVER...HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DO TO ON-SHORE FLOW.  THE NRN PART
OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NW GULF AND TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE.  20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
WAVES.  A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT...
PERSISTS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO INCLUDE NRN HISPANIOLA
ALONG 20N57W 19N65W 21N74W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  EXPECT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W
31N70W 30N80W.  OVERCAST SKIES ARE N OF THE FRONT.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N42W 29N43W 21N55W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 32N15W 26N20W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W
AFRICA AND 50W.  MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA INHIBITING
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 11N50W 13N30W
20N10W.

$$
FORMOSA




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