[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
68W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ENHANCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N84W 20N86W
TO 17N86W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N26W 6N44W 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N11W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 8N19W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
43W FROM 5N-10N GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39W-45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS PRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
THE FORM OF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
20W-38W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS
COAST WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SE US OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND S TEXAS TO NW MEXICO THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE N GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY EXITING THE GULF ON TUE. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH ARE
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO INTO THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF N OF 20N ANCHORED OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA BY A 1025
MB HIGH. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE E GULF E OF 90W. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WED NIGHT
INTO THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING A MEAN RIDGE
AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W
OF 81W TO JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF
13N W OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING TO JUST
N OF HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W WITH DRY
SOMEWHAT STABLE MID/UPPER AIR OVER THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N GENERATING WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 55W. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W ALONG
43N43W TO 19N48W AND THE WEAKENING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W SW TO 24N53W WHERE IT CONTINUES
AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W AND HISPANIOLA
TO NEAR 21N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 61W-73W. A LARGE ELONGATED E/W UPPER
LOW COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 34W TO OVER W AFRICA
CENTERED NEAR 33N27W AND PRODUCING A JET STREAM WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED 70 TO 100 KT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. COMPLEX
SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE TWO SURFACE LOWS N OF THE REGION AND A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N16W TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N FROM FROM 14W-27W. WESTERLY
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

$$
WALLACE



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