[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT.  INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS STILL EVIDENT
S OF PUERTO RICO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
67W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG
84W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
WEAK WAVE...REMNANT TROUGHING FROM AN OLD FRONT AND OVERALL
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
77W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N20W 6N50W 7N60W.  THE ITCZ IS
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AIDED BY AN UPPER JET N OF THE REGION.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-40W...AND
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-57W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR
SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS.  THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS COAST...HOWEVER...HAS
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING
SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS COAST WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 85W.  EXPECT THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N47W 28N50W 22N60W.  A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 47W-49W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 31N19W 28N20W 22N26W
21N32W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
25N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN W
AFRICA AND 50W.  MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA
INHIBITING TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 13N50W
13N30W 20N18W 30N10W.

$$
FORMOSA





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