[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W/61W S OF
16N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS JUST S OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 75W-80W...
AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF
JAMAICA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N30W 10N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 8W-12W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-40W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 40W-56W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR
SKIES ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.  THE TEXAS COAST...
HOWEVER...HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN DUE TO
10-15 KT ON-SHORE FLOW.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM S TEXAS TO LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE GULF AND PRODUCE MOSTLY SWLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SHOWERS...IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE. A
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DOWN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE ALONG 20N74W
17N88W.  THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES N OF
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT THE TWO TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO E CUBA ALONG
32N54W 26N60W 20N74W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 51W-55W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG
32N18W 24N30W 23N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT.  ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER NW ALONG
32N25W 27N30W 26N34W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THIS FRONT FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 22W-25W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF
40W.  MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA INHIBITING TROPICAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

$$
FORMOSA



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