[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
9N53W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  A BROAD INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS
NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN.  SHOWERS ARE HEAVIEST OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 6N20W 7N40W 9N53W 9N61W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 10W-17W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 31W-44W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N91W.  FAIR
SKIES ARE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 27N.  AS OF 1500 UTC...A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N80W 21N90W 18N93W.
THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY E OF 85W.  A VERY THIN LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 85W.  10-20 KT NLY
WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT.
ON-SHORE FLOW W OF 95W FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO VERACRUZ MEXICO IS
PRODUCING LOW LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES WITH DRIZZLE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 93W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO ON-SHORE
FLOW...IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
85W-88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN
THAT HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE S OF 15N AND W OF 80W.
EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N
DUE TO THE LEADING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
30N67W 26N74W 23N80W.  BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 15-20 KT NLY WINDS.  AN AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N
BETWEEN 58W-63W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  A 1010 MB
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N22W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO 27N26W 25N30W 24N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  AN ARE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 34W-37W
AGAIN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 45W-65W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N37W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF
30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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