[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND
55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 15N TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE
MONA PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY
BE FALLING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ...
IT STARTS AT 10N11W IN SIERRA LEONE...AND IT GOES ALONG 6N23W
7N40W 8N50W...CROSSING THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN GUYANA INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 1W AND 4W...FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 9W AND 17W...AN ISOLATED CELL OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN
A 15 NM RADIUS OF 4N21W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 44W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS INTERIOR
MEXICO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE EVEN ENCOMPASSES TEXAS.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS PUSHED ITSELF THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N...AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ABOUNDS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. THE AIR
APPEARS TO BE COMPARATIVELY THE DRIEST NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 66W
AND 85W. A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM MIAMI FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND CURVING SOUTHWARD SHARPLY INTO
MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWESTWARD TO
HONDURAS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY HAVE BEEN DRIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW REACH AT LEAST 18N NEAR JAMAICA WEST OF
70W...ON TOP OF THE DRY AIR. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BEEN INVADED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A TROUGH HAS FILTERED INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ALTERNATELY FORMING AND DISSIPATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD
BEYOND 32N63W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W
SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 15N TO SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND
IN THE MONA PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION ALSO
MAY BE FALLING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LATEST DEEP LAYER TROUGH PRETTY MUCH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COMPLETELY. PART OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS LAGGING BEHIND AS IT PASSES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS STEERING A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO MIAMI FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN CURVING SHARPLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N67W
26N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS WHAT
REMAINS OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N70W FROM
SIX HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 24N57W BEYOND 31N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 26N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WEST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE FROM 24N57W
AND BEYOND. A CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N23W 26N30W
24N43W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N23W 24N43W COLD FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 4OW.

$$
MT




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