[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15N TO 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N29W 7N40W...FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND
54W...AND FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER AND AROUND
THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...
STARTS AT THE SIERRA LEONE/GUINEA BORDERS NEAR 9N13N...AND
GOES ALONG 6N30W 9N48W...9N54W...AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...
WITHIN 15N TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N29W 7N40W...
AND FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS INTERIOR
MEXICO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE EVEN ENCOMPASSES TEXAS.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PUSHING ITSELF THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS NORTH OF 24N...AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 69W. PRACTICALLY EVERYTHING
HERE IS HAPPENING WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. THE AIR APPEARS TO BE COMPARATIVELY
THE DRIEST NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 90W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
FROM JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CURVING SOUTHWARD SHARPLY INTO MEXICO JUST WEST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWESTWARD TO
HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN INVADED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALTERNATELY FORMING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD BEYOND 30N67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS STEERING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N70W. ONE TROUGH GOES
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND REACHES 27N63W AND 24N56W.
A SECOND TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD BEYOND 30N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 24N59W
29N58W BEYOND 33N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 27N58W...
AND  POSSIBLY WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 30N58W.  MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE FROM 24N59W AND BEYOND. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N25W 27N30W
25N42W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N25W 25N42W COLD FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 4OW.

$$
MT




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