[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR
NEAR 10N47W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
43W-51W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N
REACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW
LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM GRENADA TO HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N24W 9N47W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-35W...AND FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N83W 27N90W 25N96W 23N98W 30N108W. THE
FRONT HAS A VERY THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT. 20-30 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N
OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER S...ON-SHORE FLOW W OF 95W FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO TO VERACRUZ MEXICO IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES
WITH DRIZZLE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT HAS 10
KT NELY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND BE RELATIVELY DRY
...IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-62W.  FURTHER W...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-82W...AND ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N83W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N BETWEEN
76W-90W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT
ALL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 24N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-80W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 57W-66W. ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N AND E OF 45W.

$$
FORMOSA




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