[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
7N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF
19N REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED
CELLS OF RAINSHOWERS ARE REACHING THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 73W IN GENERAL. IT APPEARS
THAT SOME SHOWERS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ ARE BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE AREA OF 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 73W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N10W IN LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE TO 6N30W TO 9N47W INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE EQUATOR AT 2W-4N8W...AND WITHIN
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 4N24W 7N35W 10N42W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N89W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT ALREADY HAS REACHED THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF
COAST WATERS AROUND 15/0900 UTC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 24N79W...BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...NORTHWARD TO 31N81W OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W REACHING THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF
19N REACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED
CELLS OF RAINSHOWERS ARE REACHING THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 73W IN GENERAL. IT APPEARS
THAT SOME SHOWERS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ ARE BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE AREA OF 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 73W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS WAVE. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS
WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ON TOP OF
THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOUTH OF 12N84W 11N80W 10N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS
INVADED THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR...COLLIDING WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...FROM CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE BROAD TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING OVER BERMUDA TO 23N69W...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/TROUGH FEATURE...PASSING THROUGH
32N32W 26N40W 22N55W 24N68W 24N74W. A SECOND TROUGH GOES FROM
28N40W TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W TO 26N54W
AND 27N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N28W 25N41W 22N51W 23N61W 25N70W. THE WHOLE AREA OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 57W AND
70W...AND BLOW-OFF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
72W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BERMUDA TO
23N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 14N37W 20N35W 28N28W BEYOND 32N24W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 45W. THE MOROCCO MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED MORE TO THE EAST AND NOW COVERS
ALGERIA...PARTS OF MOROCCO...AND MAURITANIA.

$$
MT



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