[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF
18N AND PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. THIS WAVE IS EASY
TO SPOT BECAUSE OF ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N
AT PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N10W IN LIBERIA TO 6N30W TO 9N42W 10N48W INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N5W 5N23W 8N36W 9N44W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W. A COLD
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AT THIS MOMENT...
SET TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DURING
THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF
18N AND PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. THIS WAVE IS EASY
TO SPOT BECAUSE OF ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW
CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N
AT PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ON
TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS INVADED THE AREA.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL
WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA
TO EL SALVADOR...COLLIDING WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FROM CUBA
ACROSS JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SUCCESSION OF ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFTER ANOTHER
ONE FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH ONE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
OVER BERMUDA TO 23N69W...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH FEATURE...AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES THROUGH 32N35 26N43W 22N50W 24N72W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N30W 27N39W
23N49W 22N60W 25N72W. THE WHOLE AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND BLOW-OFF CIRRUS CLOUDS
FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BERMUDA TO 23N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
14N37W 20N35W 28N28W BEYOND 32N24W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EAST
OF 45W. THE MOROCCO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED MORE
TO THE EAST AND NOW COVERS ALGERIA...PARTS OF MOROCCO...AND
MAURITANIA.

$$
MT




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