[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH/1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN
24 HOURS AGO. THE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OF 6 HOURS AGO
OF HAVE DISAPPEARED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...AND DUE EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 16N83W
19N85W...AROUND A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 6N20W TO 7N40W TO 7N50W TO
NORTHERN SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...FROM 7N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W...
AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W ARE RELATED TO
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W TO
15N63W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH/1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN
24 HOURS AGO. THE STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OF 6 HOURS AGO OF
HAVE DISAPPEARED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...AND DUE EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 16N83W
19N85W...AROUND A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FEATURES.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BELOW THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA THANKS TO A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...ACCOMPANYING THE 32N40W
19N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH.
THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND
68W ARE RELATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N62W TO 15N63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED TO 71W...FROM 26N
NORTHWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS
ALONG 78W/79W FROM 23N TO 29N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...
INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN BROWARD COUNTY DURING THE DAY
YESTERDAY. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N68W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT/TROUGH. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/TROUGH
FEATURE...AS A TROUGH FROM 32N40W TO 24N50W 20N58W 18N65W.
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W
26N47W BEYOND 33N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 16N35W
25N32W BEYOND 33N32W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING
THROUGH MOROCCO...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...INTO WESTERN MAURITANIA.

$$
MT


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