[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHERE
A SURFACE TROUGH/1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN 24 HOURS
AGO. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W
AND 83W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO
BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME
DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 9N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 6N25W TO 8N43W TO NORTHERN
SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND
FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N87W TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FEATURES.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BELOW THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...A REMINDER OF THE TROUGH AND 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 24 HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS BETWEEN 84W AND LAND FROM HONDURAS TO 20N. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SOME
DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 16N.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...ACCOMPANYING THE 30N42W 19N64W
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W
NEAR A SOUTHEASTERN CORNER SURFACE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED TO 73W...FROM 27N
NORTHWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
SURROUND THE ALABAMA-TO-FLORIDA PANHANDLE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 24N TO
28N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
24N TO 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
IN BROWARD COUNTY DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N70W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/TROUGH FEATURE...THROUGH 32N39W
30N42W AS A COLD FRONT...AND FROM 30N42W TO 24N50W 20N59W
19N64W AS A TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 19N56W 26N47W BEYOND 33N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 16N35W 26N37W BEYOND 34N35W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM A POINT
ABOUT 180 NM SOUTH OF PORTUGAL...THROUGH MOROCCO FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...INTO WESTERN MAURITANIA.

$$
MT




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