[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A WEAK
NARROW QUICKLY-MOVING MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. NO LINE OR DEFINITE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS ARE IN COLOMBIA
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. THESE CELLS MAY OR
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE AT ALL.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 11N14W AT THE GUINEA COAST TO 10N20W 10N30W 9N46W...INTO
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 5N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W...FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 33W...FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND
44W...AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST.  A WEAK AND POSSIBLE CYCLONIC SWIRL EXISTS NEAR
22N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...JUST WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM
MEXICO...THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W AT 13/0000 UTC HAS WEAKENED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG 86W/87W FROM 10N TO 20N...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO NICARAGUA...ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PANAMA
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WATERS EAST OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDERS...TO THE WATERS EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WEST
OF 10N76W 16N76W 20N81W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO PUERTO
RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH
OF 13N EAST OF 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/THE MONA PASSAGE. THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE 30N47W-TO-PUERTO
RICO SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 30N AT 40W AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
30N47W TO 26N50W TO 20N60W TO PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N65W
25N52W 27N42W BEYOND 32N35W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE 30N47W-TO-PUERTO RICO TROUGH BETWEEN
50W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W COMPLETELY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N38W 24N37W BEYOND 32N32W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
MOROCCO...ENCOMPASSING THE AZORES.

$$
MT


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