[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS
A WEAK NARROW QUICKLY-MOVING MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. NO LINE OR DEFINITE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
IN VENEZUELA AND MOVED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO...THESE MAY OR MAY
NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE AT ALL.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 11N15W AT THE GUINEA COAST TO 10N20W 10N40W 8N48W 5N55W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 13W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF AFRICA...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND
36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND
41W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA. A WEAK AND POSSIBLE CYCLONIC SWIRL
EXISTS NEAR 231N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...JUST WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO...THROUGH TEXAS
AND INTO LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND IN SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N86W JUST EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N85W...19N86W...AND 16N88W NEARLY IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. A 73W TROPICAL WAVE IS
NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY NEAR IT. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N EAST OF 66W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO
18N67W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
MONA PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SUPPORTING THE 32N40W 18N67W SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 30N AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 25N50W TO 20N60W
AND 18N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N62W 24N53W 25N40W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N37W 27N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE 32N40W 18N67W TROUGH BETWEEN 50W AND
60W...AND NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W COMPLETELY.

$$
MT



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