[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
CLEARLY SHOWS A LARGE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST ACCOMPANYING THIS
WAVE. THE LESSER ANTILLES...BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND GRENADA ARE
REPORTING DUST AND HAZE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRY/STABLE AIR
MASS IS REACHING 70W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
15N BETWEEN 62W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ABOVE WAVE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH THIS WAVE AND IT WILL
BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT SURFACE MAP. NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE E OF 35W. THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG
10N13W 7N20W 8N30W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 14W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 23W-35W. IT APPEARS
THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE CONVECTION NEAR 30W. FUTURE MONITORING IS REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
10-15 KT W AND SW WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT A SURFACE
TROUGH TO APPROACH E TEXAS AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST HAS REACHED 70W IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE.  A
1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA
FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 74W-85W. THE LOW IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING W
THUS HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO
GUATEMALA NEAR 14N89W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 84W. EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA
ALONG 32N62W 29N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS
ALONG 26N73W 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 26N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-80W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-55W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 14N46W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA






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