[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
MIMIC TPW ANIMATION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE DRY SURGE... WITH SAHARAN DUST...QUICKLY
SPREADING WWD TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 53W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE
SIGNATURE APPARENT IN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 4N40W 4N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-35W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W.  10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E SIDE OF A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING NWLY WINDS OVER THE GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE
TO SOUTH CAROLINA IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS...AND COOLER NLY
WINDS TO FLOW OVER N FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER WAVE
IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1007 MB LOW
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW
COLOMBIA NEAR 7N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N81W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-19N BETWEEN 71W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N89W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN 70W-85W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE W TO THE COAST
OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AT 15 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF BERMUDA
ALONG 32N66W 27N72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
FRONT.  THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 24N60W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-60W
WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 16N44W. A TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA






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