[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
MIMIC TPW ANIMATION CLEARLY SHOWS A LARGE DRY SURGE...ASSOCIATED
AT LEAST IN PART WITH SAHARAN DUST...QUICKLY SPREADING WWD TO
ABOUT 57W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  MUCH
OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE
APPARENT IN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 4N40W 4N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-37W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W.  10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E SIDE OF A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING NWLY WINDS OVER THE GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE
TO S GEORGIA IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1009 MB LOW IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 17N82W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-18N BETWEEN 72W-84W.  EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE W TO THE COAST
OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AT 15 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W
28N74W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT.  THE
TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N52W 25N60W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO A 1011 MB LOW N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 31N17W 23N22W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
25N BETWEEN 30W-60W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 16N44W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W.  ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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