[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 12N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS
WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN AN AVERAGE TROPICAL WAVE
AND IS ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF A DENSE AREA OF AFRICA DUST.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 4N-10N WEST OF 42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAK SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N20W 7N40W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-15W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-27W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FLOW AROUND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS
DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N97W TO 20N96W
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR
9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS
SITUATED SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. MODERATE TO STRONG N TO
NE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY THERE. REMNANT
SHOWERS FROM A DISSIPATED SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN N OF 17N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS
RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 24N76W WESTWARD TO 24N82W. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 30N66W AND EXTENDS TO 26N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. FARTHER
EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 35N57W
SW TO 23N66W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS 250 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N49W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W. THIS LOW HAS LITTLE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW SOUTH OF
THE AZORES TO 31N22W THEN SW TO 26N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS 160 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE REGION OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLC S OF
26N E OF 41W.

$$
WADDINGTON


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