[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOO FAST FOR A TROPICAL WAVE AND
IS MORE OF A LEADING EDGE OF A DENSE AREA OF AFRICA DUST. THIS
WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER E/W EDGE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 35W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N21W 7N42W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10W-26W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE E GULF INTO THE
W ATLC NOW COVERING THE AREA E OF 88W. A JET STREAM REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO
90 KT EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
THE W ATLC. RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER S
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI IS DEPICTED AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N97W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
NEAR 18N95W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MUCH THE
GULF WITH SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS
TEXAS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. THUS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W TO OVER W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR
9N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 14N W OF 70W TO INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY THERE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM PUERTO RICO TO
HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO
THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
24N74W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 66W-70W WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT TO 27N W OF 72W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ALONG 24N76W TO BEYOND 32N60W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND
32N52W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W TO 23N61W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 52W-60W. AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N E OF 40W WITH THE UPPER LOW N
OF THE REGION AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W ALONG
25N34W 20N44W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N49W TO 13N55W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW. A CLASSIC E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AFRICA TO 46W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 6W/7W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
IN AREA OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC N OF THE
ITCZ AND S OF A LINE FROM 10N47W 24N37W TO OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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