[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG 42W
S OF 13N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
THAT INDICATED A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS
FEATURE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS FROM
CIMSS AND THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. THIS WAVE IS MORE OF A LEADING
EDGE OF A DENSE AREA OF AFRICA DUST THAN A TRUE CLASSIC TROPICAL
WAVE AS WELL AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER E/W EDGE. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 37W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 7N36W 5N49W 7N57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 18W-30W AND WITHIN 225 NM
S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND E GULF CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC E OF 90W. A JET STREAM REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO
100 KT EXTENDING FROM E TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLC. RETURN FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA IS DEPICTED AS A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N96W INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W OVER THE YUCATAN TO N BELIZE.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MUCH THE GULF WITH
SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS MEXICO  AND
TEXAS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N75W TO OFF NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COUPLED
WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
AND PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
14N W OF 70W TO INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 64W-71W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND E GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N62W SW TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N68W TO 26N60W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N55W TO
BEYOND 32N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC E
OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W SW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
24N75W BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N FROM
63W-70W WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT TO 27N W OF 73W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA ALONG
25N75W TO BEYOND 32N58W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 30N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING ACTIVITY OVER THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 40W WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE FEATURES N OF THE REGION. A REMNANT NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS INT HE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N45W TO 12N49W
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N42W SW TO A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 16N49W TO 13N51W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A CLASSIC E/W
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 45W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 7W/8W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE




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