[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N18W 8N34W 7N43W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-37W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA
NEAR 7N11W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N FROM 29W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E US AND THE GULF IS PUSHING
E OVER THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 93W. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 110 KT
EXTENDING ACROSS E TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH THE E GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E
US NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W
BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY NW TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT IN THE
W GULF. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED
ACROSS MEXICO ALONG TO THE COAST BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND E TEXAS. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS
MORNING AS THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W BUT DUE
TO THE DRY STABLE AIR IN PLACE THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W ALONG 15N76W TO OFF
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 77W AND
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 10N77W AND
COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF 14N W OF 71W TO INLAND CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER CLEAR
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N63W TO OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PUSH E EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 27N65W SW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N69W. A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N68W SW ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE FLORIDA COAST. A JET
STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 70 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N73W TO
NEAR 29N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 20N FROM 53W-64W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION AND A 1008 MB CENTERED
NEAR 33N30W AND A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG 30N25W 23N35W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 12N48W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH N OF 28N FROM 20W-25W AND S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO 8N BETWEEN 40W-48W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net