[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N21W 6N40W 4N53W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-9N BETWEEN 26W-42W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N20W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 6N11W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E US AND THE GULF IS PUSHING
E OVER THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 93W. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 100 KT
EXTENDING ACROSS E TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE OVER
THE GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E US EXTENDING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W ALONG THE N COAST OF
CUBA TO 22N88W THEN NW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S
OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
GULF WITH SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS
MEXICO ALONG THE COAST BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E EXITING THE E GULF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE W PORTION BEGINS TO WASH OUT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W TO THE TIP
OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MODERATE/
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA
NEAR 10N77W AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 72W TO
INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO FROM 63W-68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A LEADING
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32W55W SW TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 26N65W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 33N68W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NORTHWARD. A
JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
26N72W TO NEAR 28N60W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N48W WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 25N FROM 52W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION AND A 1009 MB CENTERED
NEAR 33N31W AND A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG 30N26W 23N30W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 13N45W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH N OF 27N FROM 22W-26W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 51W FROM 10N-19N WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST TO E PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 40W-48W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net