[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...AS
IT APPEARS AS IF MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS BEEN ABSORBED
INTO THE MORE BAROCLINIC TYPE OF SYSTEM FURTHER N. THE UW-CIMSS
TPW PRODUCT DOES SHOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WELL OVER
THE LAST 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR
THE WAVE REMAINS MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N30W 6N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 24W-41W...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
PUSHING S THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THIN LINE OF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHING ACROSS
THE GULF BETWEEN SW FLORIDA AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED A SURGE OF 20 KT NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. MOSTLY 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT
STRONGER NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIP NOTED ACROSS THE GULF IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH
POSSIBLE SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE AREA S OF 22N. NO
DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITH DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE AND
UPPER NW FLOW. N/NE SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE NE TIP OF
HONDURAS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ONLY OTHER ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIB IS ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND A FEW CELLS NOTED NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE
DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFFSHORE AND THROUGH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 07/1500 UTC EXTENDS SW FROM NEAR 32N73W TO
NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY CHARACTERIZED BY A
THIN LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND WILL ALLOW STEEP NLY WIND WAVES TO RAPIDLY BUILD
OFFSHORE FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
AS STATIONARY NEAR 32N55W SW TO 27N68W...THEN CONTINUES AS A
TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH LATER
TODAY AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA BY LATE THU. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS GETTING SUPPORT BY AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER AND SFC FEATURES IS
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 17N50W...WHICH IS
GENERATING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 37W-51W. A 1006 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NEAR
21N33W. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. A TRAILING TROUGH IS ALONG 30N27W 21N33W
13N44W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS N OF 23N...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 21W-30W. MODERATE SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC AREA.

$$
WILLIS


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