[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 49W.

THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 63W AT 06/0600 UTC
HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. IT WAS JUST TOO
WEAK IN ORDER TO BE DETECTED. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH STILL
EXISTS ALONG 24N64W 20N65W 17N65W...PASSING ON TOP OF THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SAINT CROIX. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE TURNING CYCLONICALLY IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY...
WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 7N23W 8N42W 7N61W INTO GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W...
AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...AND
THE WESTERN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
MOSTLY JUST WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE S0UTHERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE WEST
OF 70W. SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA STATIONARY FRONT COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF 20N81W
18N88W. SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A COLD FRONT STILL
IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST LITTLE BY
LITTLE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH 30N60W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS/THE INAGUA ISLANDS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N85W 19N80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW COMPARATIVELY A BIT MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
THE DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS IN PLACE. A GALE 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 31N37W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
THIS GALE CENTER....WITHIN A 450 TO 500 NM RADIUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS
PARALLEL TO THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EAST OF 30W...AND THEN
ALONG 22N30W 17N41W.

THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE BORDERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS/NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND CLOSE TO
EASTERN EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 77W IN AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...COMBINED WITH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA EVEN
EXTENDS TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A 1008 MB LOW CENTER WAS ANALYZED RIGHT ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST
FROM 10.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 75.5W.

$$
MT




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