[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED
THAT A LOW PRES CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
13W...THOUGH IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15
KT. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS LIMITED...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
63W...MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED
ANYMORE AND MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED FROM THE MAP SOON. THE UPPER
LOW THE WAVE WAS GETTING SUPPORT FROM HAS STALLED E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NWP GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING E INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE
ISOLATED TSTMS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-20 BUT
THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N32W 10N44W 7N59W. ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. IN FACT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED N
OF 25N WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. A 1020 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF PENSACOLA THAT HAS MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ROTATING AROUND IT...EXCEPT A LITTLE STRONGER NE
WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. FAIRLY UNIFORM UPPER NW FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
UNITED STATES AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE COAST NE NICARAGUA TO THE ERN TIP OF CUBA...THEN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE ATLC. THE TAIL END
OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER NE HONDURAS AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF
19N BETWEEN 79W-85W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NELY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. TYPICAL
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALOFT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN
UPPER LOW IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.
NLY FLOW AND DRY AIR BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES IS KEEPING THE E
CARIBBEAN MOSTLY TRANQUIL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST IN
THE NW PORTION THROUGH WED WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
FLORIDA...THE W ATLC AND THE NW/CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS AND COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N59W...THEN CONTINUES TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A ROUGHLY 100 NM WIDE
BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS NE WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 20 KT WITHIN 180NM BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR
CLEAR SKIES JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. WHILE NOEL IS MOSTLY A THING OF
THE PAST...SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL ENERGY
CONTINUES TO REGISTER AT THE BUOYS IN THE WRN ATLC. THIS IS
MIXING WITH MODERATE ELY SWELLS FROM A RECENT PROLONGED FETCH OF
STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND
WED...ALLOWING INCREASING N WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES TO
DEVELOP.

THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE OCCLUDED 1000 MB SFC LOW JUST N
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N35W...OR ABOUT 540 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN 32W-39W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 32N25W AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N36W...THEN NW TO
32N49W. THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH JUST TO THE
S IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ESPECIALLY N OF
21N BETWEEN 21W-28W. THE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALSO
GENERATING ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-57W. WEAK SFC
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC...EXTENDING S
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO NOTED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 31W-40W...ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

$$
WILLIS


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