[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N/14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W
AND 48W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W...AND FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND
54W IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...
TO THE EAST OF THE 17N60W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N61W 16N60W 11N59W.
THE 17N60W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND ITS RELATED
FLOW DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN HERE...NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE.
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AREAS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE 17N60W CENTER. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...

11N14W 7N30W 9N43W 9N61W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 62W...AND
THE WESTERN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE LAST COLD FRONT ALREADY HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N61W TO 23N70W...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA
TO 17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N60W 27N64W 26N67W 24N70W 20N75W
IN EASTERN CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 20N74W
13N79W 11N83W...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 17N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO
23N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVEN PASSING
ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. A BROAD EAST-TO-WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 35W INTO NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA. A RIDGE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N57W.
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE 17N60W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND NORTH OF
13N/14N EAST OF THE RIDGE ALOFT 32N53W 25N57W. A DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR
34N35W. A 996 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 34N34W. TWO COLD FRONTS
ARE COMING OUT OF THIS LOW CENTER. THOSE FRONTS ARE LINED UP
ONE AFTER THE OTHER ONE...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 55W.
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS DISSIPATING ALONG 30N21W 22N30W
21N40W 24N50W 30N55W. THE SECOND FRONT IS COLD THROUGH 30N27W
27N30W 26N40W BEYOND 30N47W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE
FRONTS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A JET STREAM ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N30W AND A SEPARATE
BRANCH ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 17N35W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST AT 26N.

THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
67W...FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 22N68W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N76W TO 17N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

$$
MT


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