[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 43W FROM 5N TO 18N...MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WITH NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A 14.5N44W 12N38.5W LINE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 22N61W TO 15N59W TO 7N57W...MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 18N59W. LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISPLACED WELL E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ACTIVITY IS
STRONGEST WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N51W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N30W 9N45W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A 8N46W 10N50W LINE.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC W OF 62W...
A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THIS
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG
78W/79W N OF ABOUT 22N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. GFS 300 MB WESTERLY
WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 75 KNOTS N OF ABOUT 29N AND
LESSEN TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS OR SO ALONG 22N. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NEAR 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE E
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE EAST CARIBBEAN...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 18N59W...MOVING SLOWLY NW. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM ABOUT 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. BROAD RIDGING COVERS
THE AREA S OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS W OF ABOUT
35W INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA. A RIDGE ALOFT HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N54W TO NEAR 26N57W. VERY LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE E AND E CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 31W
N OF 17N. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED FROM 17N TO WELL BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 48W. A JET ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N30W AND A SEPARATE BRANCH
ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 17N35W TO THE AFRICAN
COAST AT 26N. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH
32N20W TO 24N25W TO 23N46W TO 22N38W TO 25N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N32W TO BEYOND
32N46W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A 16N40W 15.5N32W LINE.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 68W WITH THE
AXIS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY THROUGH CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 22N68W. DIFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

$$
CAB



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