[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 41W FROM 5N TO 18N...MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CENTER WITH NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 12.5N39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 23N59W TO 15N58W TO 6N55W...MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N58W. LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISPLACED E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ACTIVITY IS STRONGEST
WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 17N52W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N30W 8N45W 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND
49W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC W OF 65W...
A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THIS
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG
80W N OF ABOUT 20N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. GFS 300 MB WINDS
INDICATE SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 80 KNOTS N OF ABOUT 29N AND LESSEN TO
ABOUT 30 KNOTS OR SO ALONG 22N. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR
16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
IN 24 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE EAST CARIBBEAN...
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 17N58W...MOVING SLOWLY NW. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM ABOUT 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. BROAD RIDGING COVERS
THE AREA S OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS W OF ABOUT
35W INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA. A RIDGE ALOFT HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N55W TO NEAR 25N58W. VERY LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE E AND E CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 32W
N OF 17N. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED FROM 18N TO WELL BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A JET ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N45W TO 24N30W AND A SEPARATE BRANCH
ORIGINATES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 18N35W TO THE AFRICAN
COAST AT 25N. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH
32N21W TO 24N26.5W TO 23N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N36W TO BEYOND 32N45W.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 65W WITH THE
AXIS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY THROUGH CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. DIFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W. A
1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA DURING THE DAY.

$$
CAB


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