[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG TILTED FROM 10N52W
TO 20N56W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N19W 10N36W 8N46W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 31W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 22W-34W AND FROM 7N12N
BETWEEN 45W-51W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A JET STREAM OVER THE SE US AND THE N GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 TO 90 KT N OF 27N E OF 94W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WHICH IS
LIMITING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E
CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO JUST N OF THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. MODERATE/STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 13N61W TO OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W USHERING DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA W OF A LINE
FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W SW TO CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N64W TO 25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N FROM
70W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS HAITI AND E
CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
25N55W THROUGH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 17N58W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 13N61W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
20N FROM ROUGHLY 35W-60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 24N E
OF 30W EXTENDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N24W TO 25N33W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICS
EXTENDING ALONG 9N/10N TO 50W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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