[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040445
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG TILTED FROM 9N51W
TO 19N54W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N30W 10N37W 9N49W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N E OF 28W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 27W-50W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A JET STREAM INLAND OVER THE SE US. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WHICH IS LIMITING CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
S GULF BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MON. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA
NEAR 20N77W TO JUST N OF THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH IS OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR THAT HAD PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NOW COVERS MOST
OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N74W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N84W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ABOVE
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W
USHERING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THUS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US CONTINUES TO PUSH E ACROSS
THE W ATLC LEAVING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA SW TO CUBA NEAR
21N76W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA
NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
23N FROM 71W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
BEYOND 32N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 25N55W THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 35W-60W ANCHORED BY
A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W EXTENDING A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W TO 26N32W. AN E/W
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICS EXTENDING ALONG 9N/10N TO
47W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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