[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED
V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE AREA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 9N48W TO 19N50W...BASED ON
SATELLITE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 43W AND THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N23W 11N33W 9N40W 11N50W
9N61W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N EAST OF 16W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 23W-28W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE GULF UNDER A
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO A FEW
REMNANT SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING
A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N81W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND THE SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WSW TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR HAVE PUSHED S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE.
STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N74W TO 12N84W...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
BECOME CLUSTERED AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMALLY
HURRICANE NOEL...ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 31N68W AND STRETCHING
SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N69W OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN...WHEREAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE LATER TODAY AND NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN S TO SW WINDS 20-30 KT NORTH OF 25N. FARTHER EAST... A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034
MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM A SFC LOW NW OF THE AZORES TO NEAR 31N27W THEN WSW TO
27N37W. MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND TO 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON




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