[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
AREA OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG TILTED FROM 9N47W
TO 20N49W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 43W
AND THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N22W 11N35W 9N41W 10N51W
9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N11W TO 8N15W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N36W TO 6N42W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLC WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY...THUS THE SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS E GULF THROUGH TODAY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE DURING THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 23N81W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
HAVE PUSHED S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LIMITING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT TO ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE BRINGING STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN
CUBA AND JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OUT OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N78W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N75W 18N80W TO OVER COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 14N TO INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-74W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 65W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE REMNANTS OF NOEL FURTHER N
OF THE REGION LEAVING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IN
ITS WAKE COVERING THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA SSW TO
CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR N ATLC E OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRAPES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THE W
SIDE OF THE REMNANTS OF NOEL INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W ALONG
30N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND
STRONG N TO NE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N72W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA NEAR 21N76W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N74W ALONG 27N68W TO BEYOND
32N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 28N46W ALONG 20N53W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-57W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NW OF THE AZORES AND
EXTENDING A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N28W TO
29N37W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND IS BEGINNING TO
BRIDGE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NOEL ARE
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 45W. AN E/W
UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE TROPICS EXTENDING ALONG 8N/9N TO 44W
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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