[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NOEL IS PULLING NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
AND IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT 02/2100 UTC THE CENTER OF NOEL...THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE
2007 TROPICAL SEASON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH..
LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 NM...725 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 280 NM...510 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL IS MAKING THE
TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT
TO QUALIFY NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS THE LAST PUBLIC
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM AT 2100 UTC. HOWEVER...THE MARINE THREAT OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL NOT END. STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OFFSHORE THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST THROUGH SAT...AND FOR THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS CLEARLY THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM STILL SHOWS UP WELL
ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAM DEPICTS VERY WELL THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS 45W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA INDICATE THAT
THE WAVE JUST PASSED BUOY 41014. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N28W 7N41W 7N50W 7N62W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 200 NM S
OF AXIS EAST OF 30W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
19W-24W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AT OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF CROSSING
N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UW-CIMMS TPW PRODUCT SHOWS VERY
WELL THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPORTS THE FRONT
WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE SFC WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND HURRICANE
NOEL. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS ALSO NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF IN WV IMAGERY...WITH THE FLOW MORE OR LESS ZONAL. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NE FLOW
WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EXCEPT LIGHTER OVER THE NW PORTION
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE
FLOW NEAR SE MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY KEEP SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE ALREADY FLOODED PARTS OF TABASCO AND
SURROUNDING MEXICAN AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVELS CLOUDS AFFECTING THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACES OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1007 MB...HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE MOTION OR A
WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL. LIGHTNING DATA IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NE HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA AS WELL
AS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED...
MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH. COOL/DRY AIR IS ALSO
INVADING WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE W ATLC...
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH NOEL'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NLY WINDS AND LARGE N/NE SWELLS ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N30W 25N53W
31N70W...WHICH IS GETTING SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 21N
BETWEEN 46W-54W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS
HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
22N-31N BETWEEN 34W-46W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N W
OF 35W. TRADES ARE MOSTLY MODERATE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC AREA WITH MODERATE SFC RIDGING IN PLACE.

$$
GR




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