[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 75.2W AT 02/0900 UTC
MOVING NNE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT. SEE
THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CLOUDS TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...THUS
CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS 6 HOURS AGO. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN
70W-77W. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N78W ACROSS JAMAICA
OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN 60/75 NM TO THE E
OF NOEL NEAR 27N72W. DRY UPPER AIR IS TO THE W OF NOEL AND
BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE SYSTEM LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
S AND W. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATE TO THE NE
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N25W 6N30W 6N40W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N FROM 16W-20W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW
ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE GULF
FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG 30N TO
ACROSS S LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE E GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAPIDLY E
AND SLOWLY TO THE S INTO THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS NOEL RAPIDLY MOVES NE. THESE
WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND
AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF
91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE GULF
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVATE THIS MORNING DUE TO A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE NOEL. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W S ALONG
17N79W TO 11N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM
OF LINE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W ALONG 14N80W TO THE YUCATAN
NEAR 18N88W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE W
ATLC...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL ARE OVER THE FAR W
ATLC FROM CUBA TO 33N BETWEEN 78W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH MOST ARE OFFSHORE. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N78W THEN W INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO REGION ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE UPPER
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 24N FROM 30W-60W WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 25N45W. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A WEAK JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
TO BE 50 TO 70 KT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE OF NOEL IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING STRONG SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC
N OF 20N E OF 30W AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
KEEPING THE E ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N55W COVERING THE AREA S OF
19N FROM 46W-60W WITH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 7N/8N
TO 45W.

$$
WALLACE







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