[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 011530
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-168-172>174-012200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1129 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR COASTAL PALM BEACH...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF
BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM
JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
PALM BEACH COUNTY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MIAMI. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND INCREASES
ITS DISTANCE FROM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF NOEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. THE OUTER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF TRACK COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MIAMI DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI
DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER
WINDS OF NOEL ARE IN FACT MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...
BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNS OF A SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS...PARTICULARLY OVER
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE TRUCKS AND VANS MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL IN HIGH WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH PALM
BEACH COUNTY. SEVERE EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES...PARTICULARLY FROM LANTANA NORTH TO JUPITER WHERE
EXTREME BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 330 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FACT THAT PALM BEACH COASTAL SECTIONS ARE
NOT IN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...THE COASTAL IMPACT THERE WILL BE
GREATER THAN FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE NORTHEAST
PALM BEACH COAST TO INCOMING NORTHEAST SWELLS. THEREFORE...THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST.

ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTS...SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN BEACH EROSION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS ARE
BLOWING AT A SHARPER ANGLE TO THE COAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 2 AND 330 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS METRO AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
THE REST OF TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE COUNTY ALONG FLORIDA BAY. ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE IN
THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE. ANY MINOR DEVIATION TO THE LEFT
OF TRACK OF NOEL COULD BRING THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY. UNDER A
WORST CASE SCENARIO...AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN BROWARD
AND NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN SOUTH
MIAMI DADE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, 39 MPH OR HIGHER, ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE
OF THE STORM, THERE IS ABOUT A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, FOR THE MIAMI DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTY COASTS AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SINCE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE
OF NOEL, ONLY UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, NO INLAND FLOODING
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN BANDS MOVING ACROSS A PARTICULAR
AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS...WITH SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FEET AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND EXPOSED INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUSLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST.

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 230 PM EDT.

$$

MOLLEDA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net