[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 011219
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-168-172>174-011600-

TROPICAL STORM NOEL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...NOEL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NEAR WESTERN BAHAMAS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF BROWARD
AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM JUPITER
INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MIAMI. NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE NORTH AROUND 6 MPH
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF NOEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. THE OUTER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF TRACK WOULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANY WORSE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...
MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION TODAY AS STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS...PARTICULARLY OVER BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE TRUCKS AND VANS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL IN HIGH WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH PALM
BEACH COUNTY. SEVERE EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES...PARTICULARLY FROM LANTANA NORTH TO JUPITER WHERE
EXTREME BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE FROM NOON TO 3
PM TODAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION CONDITIONS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY EXPECTED TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RESULT OF THE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND NOT NECESSARILY THE
DIRECT RESULT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DESPITE THE FACT THAT PALM
BEACH COASTAL SECTIONS ARE NOT IN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...THE
COASTAL IMPACT THERE WILL BE GREATER THAN FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE
EXPOSED NATURE OF THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COAST TO INCOMING
NORTHEAST SWELLS. THEREFORE...THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.

ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS METRO AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE
COUNTY ALONG FLORIDA BAY. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MIAMI DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST
RANGE. ANY MINOR DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF TRACK OF NOEL COULD
BRING THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY. UNDER A WORST CASE SCENARIO...
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE
COUNTY AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN SOUTH MIAMI DADE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, 39 MPH OR HIGHER, ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED ACROSS OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE
OF THE STORM, THERE IS ABOUT A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, FOR THE MIAMI DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTY COASTS AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SINCE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE
OF NOEL, 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, NO INLAND FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY TRAIN ECHO EFFECT OF RAIN BANDS ALONG ANY
PARTICULAR AREA COULD LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS
MOVING ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FEET AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND EXPOSED INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUSLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

$$

MOLLEDA

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