[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 010934
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ068-072-074-168-172>174-011600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
533 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BISCAYNE BAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BISCAYNE BAY AS
WELL AS COASTAL SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN SOUTH MIAMI DADE
ALONG BISCAYNE BAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN SOUTH MIAMI DADE ALONG
BISCAYNE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO
NORTH OF OCEAN REEF AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...ALONG WITH A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR METRO AND COASTAL PALM BEACH,
AS WELL AS METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI-DADE...AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI
DADE ALONG THE FLORIDA BAY COAST FOR WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MIAMI. NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE NORTH AROUND 6 MPH
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CENTER OF NOEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. THE OUTER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY MINOR SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF TRACK WOULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES AND THEREFORE THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WARNING ON THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ANY WORSE THAN THEY WERE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ALONG THE COAST. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING RAIN BANDS. IN THIS SENSE...THIS WILL BE A MINIMAL IMPACT
EVENT.

SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, AND NOW FOR BISCAYNE BAY
TOO, MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN SAFE PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION TODAY AS STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS...PARTICULARLY OVER BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE TRUCKS AND VANS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL IN HIGH WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH PALM
BEACH COUNTY. SEVERE EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES...PARTICULARLY FROM LANTANA NORTH TO JUPITER WHERE
EXTREME BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE FROM NOON TO 3
PM TODAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION CONDITIONS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RESULT OF THE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND NOT NECESSARILY THE DIRECT
RESULT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DESPITE THE FACT THAT PALM BEACH
COASTAL SECTIONS ARE NOT IN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...THE COASTAL
IMPACT THERE WILL BE GREATER THAN FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE EXPOSED
NATURE OF THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COAST TO INCOMING NORTHEAST SWELLS
AND NOT BECAUSE OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL DIRECTLY. THEREFORE...THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH COAST.

ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS METRO AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
TODAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. ANY MINOR
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF TRACK OF NOEL COULD BRING THE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY AND THAT IS WHY THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME WITH THE EMPHASIS BEING AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN BROWARD AND NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 IN SOUTH MIAMI DADE ALONG BISCAYNE BAY. IN FACT...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE ANY WORSE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ONLY THAT THIS TIME ANY SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, 39 MPH OR HIGHER, ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED ACROSS OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
IF THEY REACH THE COAST WILL LIKELY DO SO DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE
OF THE STORM, THERE IS ABOUT A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, FOR THE MIAMI DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTY COASTS AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SINCE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE
OF NOEL, 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, NO INLAND FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY TRAIN ECHO EFFECT OF RAIN BANDS ALONG ANY
PARTICULAR AREA COULD LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS
MOVING ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FEET AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND EXPOSED INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUSLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 1130 AM EDT.

$$

SANTOS



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net