[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 19N87W.  THIS LOW SITS ALONG
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE
SRN GULF.  THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER... MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING N/NE INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO ...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR
NON-TROPICAL ...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN
CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-86W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 38W/39W S OF 9N
MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT.  THIS WEAK WAVE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY ON SAT IMAGES WITH A HINT OF SOME LOW-MID
LEVEL TURNING.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 5N30W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 7W-10W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW ALONG THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  SURFACE RIDGING
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH 15-20 KT SELY WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS 5-10 KT WINDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 91W-93W MOVING NW.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SRN
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W DRIVING THE CONVECTION TO THE NW.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
TROPICAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO... AND FLORIDA...DUE TO THE YUCATAN LOW DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN LOW TO NICARAGUA TO
12N87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-88W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 78W-84W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA...NW VENEZUELA...AND LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 71W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONSIDERABLE BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 78W.
EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO DRIFT E FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE SAME AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF PUERTO RICO
ALONG 30N53W 20N65W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 57W-62W...AND FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 51W-56W.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N24W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N BETWEEN J15W-50W.  AFRICAN
DUST COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF 45W TO W AFRICA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND
W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF
20N AND E OF 20W TO W AFRICA.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
16N23W.

$$
FORMOSA


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