[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W IS SOUTH
OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED
PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
FROM 9N13W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 6N23W 4N33W 3N39W
TO 53W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COAST...FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W. OTHER CLUSTERS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...AND FROM
4N TO LAND BETWEEN 4W AND 6W. STRONG SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N23W 6N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
1N33W 5N45W 10N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER BEYOND 32N. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FLORIDA TO CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 23N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE RIDGE...EAST OF 22N89W
28N86W 31N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALL THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
94W...ARE NOT RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA. THIS RAIN IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED AT
31/0900 UTC NEAR 19N87W NEAR THE BANCO CHINCHORRO...JUST EAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.
WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 50 TO 70 MILLIMETERS OF RAIN DURING
THE LAST 10 HOURS IN EL SALVADOR FROM THE EL SALVADOR WEATHER
BUREAU AROUND 30/0800 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11N77W...CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH...EASILY SPILLING OVER INTO
SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN/ AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO GOES FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ITS ENDPOINT NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N60W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 19N62W. THIS MEANS RAIN
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N63W 16N68W 20N72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 32N53W TO 20N63W. THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N60W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 19N62W. THIS MEANS RAIN
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N63W 16N68W 20N72W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE 32N53W 20N63WW SURFACE TROUGH. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N24W
TO 20N37W TO 14N44W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

$$
MT


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