[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DUE TO FAINT
SATELLITE SIGNATURES.  THE POSITION IS BASED MOSTLY ON
CONTINUITY.  CONVECTION IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 5N30W 5N40W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 9W-11W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N89W
17N87W.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY INLAND BETWEEN
87W-90W.  SURFACE RIDGING WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 20 KT SELY WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10 KT WINDS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF LOUISIANA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
88W-91W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 97W-99W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL SURFACE
MOISTURE AND RAIN TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE EASTERLIES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO HISPANIOLA ALONG
21N67W 18N72W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
60W-73W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
JAMAICA TO BELIZE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 77W-87W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N BETWEEN 83W-93W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA...NW VENEZUELA...AND LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 70W-74W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W.
CONSIDERABLE BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 77W.
EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE SAME AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO HISPANIOLA ALONG
33N56W 25N63W 19N70W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 52W-58W.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN J15W-50W.  AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM
5N-20N E OF 40W TO W AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 30W TO W
AFRICA.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N28W.

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net