[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG
18W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS.  ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAIN IN THE REGION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
31W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 50W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING 10-20 KT ELY FLOW.  THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED.  A LINE
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 96W-99W MOVING E.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NE MEXICO FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
98W-99W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
88W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N101W MOVING E.  DIFFLUENCE FORM THIS LOW
HELPED PRODUCE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
88W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN GULF TO THE
CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N79W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO PANAMA NEAR 8N80W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO NEAR JAMAICA AT
18N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
77W-79W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
71W-75W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 76W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 11N63W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 73W.  A COL IS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.  EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W.  A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH TO ITS
SE ALONG 30N60W 20N67W IS PRODUCE ABUNDANT 15-25KT NE TO E WINDS
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC.  THE SFC TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE MOISTURE
RICH REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18W
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N28W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR
WEATHER N OF 10N E OF 50W.  AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM 26N26W TO 18N40W BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING MUCH
MORE THAN PATCHES OF CIRRUS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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