[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FROM 8N/9N ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST...TO 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W
6N50W...TO THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER-COASTS NEAR 6N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR AT 27W...
3N30W...5N34W 6N42W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 47W AND 61W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 28N/29N ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 90W...AND NORTHWEST OF
23N80W 28N70W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER MEXICO...
TEXAS...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 92W AND
110W...UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST
POINT NEAR 19N106W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 103W AND
105W MOSTLY IN MEXICO BUT A LITTLE BIT IN THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN IN AREAS OF WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS
FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N80W 20N83W 18N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N85W IN EASTERN
HONDURAS NEAR THE NICARAGUA BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 28N/29N FLORIDA WEST COAST-TO-YUCATAN
CHANNEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA EAST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W BECAUSE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N62W TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A LARGE AND WOUND-UP DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ONE BRANCH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES OVER 32N52W TO 28N54W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO
22N62W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N62W TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS NORTH OF 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N64W 25N55W 28N51W
BEYOND 32N49W. ONE SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
31N12W. A POSSIBLY-RELATED SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W
TO 30N15W TO 29N20W. THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW IS ALONG THE LINE
THROUGH 34N23W 26N29W 22N34W 18N40W 16N40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE 32N49W 22N62W STATIONARY FRONT.

$$
MT


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