[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 4N30W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 4W-8W...AND
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-29W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 30W-34W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO HAS RAIN ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 21N-26N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ALONG 34N98W 30N98W 28N100W
MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 96W-99W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO
ADVECTING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.  IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 92W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 92W...AND ALSO S OF 20N.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN 24
HOURS.  TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N80W 16N85W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
80W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-81W.  10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.  ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER N
VENEZUELA AND THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.  WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA NEAR 35N74W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS N OF
15N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 24N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-57W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N68W.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N33W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  A PATCH
OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF
45W TO AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N32W.  ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W.

$$
FORMOSA




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