[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N20W 4N30W 6N45W 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
22W-32W... AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 32W-39W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO HAS RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 20N-24N.  A RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 95W WITH SUBSIDENCE.  WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM OVER N
FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL ELY
SURFACE FLOW TO ADVECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO TO
VENEZUELA ALONG 17N67W 11N70W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 75W-77W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W.  ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER
COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF
VIRGINIA NEAR 38N73W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 25N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-63W.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N35W.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 20W-50W.  A PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF 40W TO AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
23N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 33N12W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 540 NM OF THE CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA





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