[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
5N8W 4N20W 4N40W 4N47W 4N54W IN FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W AND 8W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N10W 4N22W 6N36W 6N49W 9N61W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N108W. THIS PATTERN
SENDS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
MEXICO AS FAR AS 27N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS SOUTH OF 27N.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF AN AREA OF A SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE OFF OF THE U.S.A. ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEABOARD SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BUT INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS... TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND
BOOSTING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N86W IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH NICARAGUA. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 12N76W
JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL GOES FROM
ANDROS ISLAND TO 19N83W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR
10N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 13N83.5W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W...AND ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM THE GULF OF
URABA TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA COASTS
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND
89W...IN AN AREA OF ILL-DEFINED AND BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH IS EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL RUNS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AFTER PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
OVER BERMUDA TO 26N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 27N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N61W 20N68W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH 32N54W
TO 23N67W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 26N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE
AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN THIS SAME AREA AS A RIDGE IS THROUGH 34N42W 29N45W 25N48W
TO 20N52W. A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N15W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BEYOND 32N EAST OF
30W TO AFRICA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N14W. THE
CURRENT PATTERN IS RATHER STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE EARLIER-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE
U.S.A. ATLANTIC OCEAN SEABOARD WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE EASTERLY FLOW WEST OF 60W AND NORTH OF 22N TO PICK UP
SUBSTANTIALLY.

$$
MT





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