[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 5N24W 4N35W 5N44W 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N AND
150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W AND W OF 49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EARLY
MORNING THANKS TO SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED TO THE E OF THE AREA IN
THE SW ATLC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD ALONG 90W. SFC
WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE E TO SE ACROSS THE REGION...
STRONGEST BETWEEN 24N-28N AS DEPICTED BY A 00Z QSCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWED WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS BRISK BREEZE IS
CARRYING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND THE EXTREME
SE GULF. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STABLE SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CLOUD FORMATION. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A REINFORCEMENT OF THE W ATLC RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE ELY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN CARIB CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
W. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIB
ALONG 23N81W 17N83W 12N81W WITH A HINT OF A WEAK SFC LOW AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE ELY TRADES LIE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW TO THE W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MORE IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS
GENERALLY S OF 12N W OF 76W. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH AND
A DVLPG AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING W ACROSS SRN CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT...THE UPPER FLOW
IS GENERALLY ZONAL W OF 75W TURNING MORE TO THE NW E OF THERE.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FLOW AND TROUGHING N OF THE AREA
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS N OF 18N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND CENTRAL CUBA...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS N OF
THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH THE LARGE
UPPER CYCLONE NOW WELL N IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N67W TOWARD HISPANIOLA.
LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO THE E IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THE SFC FLOW IS
BRISK IN THIS REGION AS A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE W. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRAD
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND
A DVLPG WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE SFC TROUGH.

VERY HEALTHY 1039 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 39N35W DOMINATES
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. THIS HIGH IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES AND A SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N44W WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING STRETCHING SWD TO 9N47W. THIS UPPER LOW HAS
BEEN VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
BUT NOW APPEARS TO GAINING SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE CENTER. THE E ATLC IS AN
AREA OF UPPER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH WHICH DIGS SWD ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N AND UPPER RIDING POKING NWD FROM ITCZ
TOWARD THE TROUGH. AN STRONG SW-WLY JET LIES BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 15N40W TO W AFRICA NEAR 24N16W. CORE
WINDS ALONG THIS JET AXIS ARE BETWEEN 100-120 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. PATCHES OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DRAWN NEWD FROM THE ITCZ TO THE JET
AXIS...WHILE ABUNDANT SINKING AIR ALOFT IS STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE N OF THE JET.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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